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Showing posts from November, 2021

Have the parabolic booms in stocks/crypto made it more risky for new investors?

Do you think things like this are happening more than they used to? https://preview.redd.it/9olg9z34kt281.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c1d89d408576e6c45b1db1526d095aeba280a0c https://preview.redd.it/z7gmxks6kt281.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=c69c4bea6867f4e82c5da94a03e1d744a5fbf1ee Are more people risking more than they can afford to lose in crypto and going further up the risk scale (More speculative projects) than they used to, like this ? https://preview.redd.it/it4h2y5mkt281.png?width=1494&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdfeb94e6a847f150748e9b15e8c07c047084ae4 Are people becoming more detached from realistic events in markets (Such as stocks selling off today upon the news from the Fed) because they think parabolic price moves is a natural state for the market and moves down are manipulation? Is there more peer pressure than there used to be to be exposed to market risk? https://preview.redd.it/1mm4douylt281.png?width=988&f...
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Most active day taking shorts for a while

Positioned for various swing shorts today. ​ Those of you who've followed us from early on will know I've always said 4700 was the area I'd be most interested in getting big into shorts. Possible catalysts (I don't trade news, but the market will not move without an excuse). Hyper strong USD moves (Something I've always said would hint towards the drop). Crazy wild expectations (Been like that for a while, but they're crazier now). Cocky bulls showing up here. https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/pzixpw/the_golden_rules_of_bearing/ via reddit https://ift.tt/3o5CjIY
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The Aussie broke

Following - AUDUSD looks like a daily break coming https://preview.redd.it/pqernnyuyr281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c470a3e5807f045854fb7ea9d5a6a8453071913 Things to know about Forex - Things to know about Forex : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3lptzvk
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SPX update

Short filled. Target for this swing 4550. Expect a possible bounce from 4545 to just over 4600 and plan to short just over 4600 if we get there. https://reddit.com/link/r5uad9/video/u1d7emgs3s281/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3I6l81U
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SPX updates

Stops trailed to 4680 on the short term trades. Targets on bulk of trades short term will hit if we drop to 4550. Updates after we see what happens 4550 (Or we see some failure to get there). https://reddit.com/link/r5s2xu/video/m8bsvd3vmr281/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3xCOIr1
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Short EURUSD

1.1288 Stop 1.13137 Target 1.11390 https://preview.redd.it/gs5yhzheor281.png?width=1911&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd093ed83e707e8fa15e21149886c637aedaa71f via reddit https://ift.tt/3llPaF7
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BA rejecting. This might head to a new low.

Main issue with BA is it moves in gaps. Which makes it harder to have good risk control on, but this has now went through the 127. Typically where I'd expect to see buyers defending if this was going to rise. https://preview.redd.it/l1tkwysvor281.png?width=1917&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbc525308db0ca8d33d38e785e539a7f1807ba39 via reddit https://ift.tt/3G0v237
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SPX butterfly

Don't get much cleaner than that. https://preview.redd.it/kfr2hkdhar281.png?width=1914&format=png&auto=webp&s=a652eb2ccca13d764165c4f445a4c79bbf7e4f22 Entry video https://reddit.com/link/r5qhz7/video/8p6mmnqiar281/player via reddit https://ift.tt/2ZCbFxO
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PSFE update

About $1 to go now to hit forecast. See here. PSFE - Strategy/concept testing : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) https://preview.redd.it/s1ujvgz9br281.png?width=1691&format=png&auto=webp&s=df1254948015be8deab3ab55fbd107e03fd865ba via reddit https://ift.tt/3D990t9
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BTC bat

​ https://preview.redd.it/6g2iwu1wbr281.png?width=1909&format=png&auto=webp&s=3657a5ff9b35128a0cba196d30c5c5a1efeae1d1 ​ https://preview.redd.it/l99n45q1cr281.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=df1d8550b4b63c7bc7d520ef899d4b5f2b53720d ​ https://preview.redd.it/cmhvabnybr281.png?width=371&format=png&auto=webp&s=29a8fa3248189a5804cfba87b2683985785f2bc9 via reddit https://ift.tt/32MdNEy
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Going deep OTM on options again

Feels like time to try some more big swing trades with deep OTMs. Please be sure to read this to understand the strategy for reducing the risk of deep OTMs, the scenarios in which it will lose, breakeven and do well. Understanding Market Bubbles: Improving Odds on Bearish Options Bets - HoleyProfit.com via reddit https://ift.tt/3rnLMxh
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TSLA options

All options 21st Jan expiry. ​ Call spreads: Long 1200 Short 1175 Net cred 2,275 Max risk 3,225 -- Long 1200 Short 1175 Net cred 1,020 Max risk 1,480 ​ Puts Long 995 Cost 4,600 -- Long 820 Cost 1,375 -- Long 610 Cost 257 ​ Read this for options strategy info. Understanding Market Bubbles: Improving Odds on Bearish Options Bets - HoleyProfit.com https://reddit.com/link/r5pzsl/video/hgdgj92h6r281/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3E4DoGq
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 29, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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Flashback to 2019

Would have been around this time (Maybe just a little later) in 2019 this chart started to do the rounds. https://preview.redd.it/94sy4eq2zl281.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=25fa8d93db4f5b679960c47c6412b097921111fc With people explaining how the market would not go down over 10% as a result of COVID (In 2019 the Fed letting the market drop over 10% was 'Literally impossible' by most public estimates). Maybe worth remembering, while we have everyone posting all about the reasons it can't go down this time. via reddit https://ift.tt/3FVeaLa
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BTC P/L Review vrs underlying

Stats tracked here https://www.myfxbook.com/members/HoleyProfit/beat-underlying-btc-medium-risk/9265463 https://reddit.com/link/r56g79/video/0o5l7s6mtl281/player BTC drawdown = Max 25% Net gain = - 20% ​ Trading drawdown = 10% Trading gain + 32% via reddit https://ift.tt/3I7GEmL
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BTC bubble update

Last post I said I thought we were here. Understanding Market Bubbles: Public Perception in Stages of an Economic Bubble - HoleyProfit.com ​ https://preview.redd.it/fvcazygkvl281.png?width=1068&format=png&auto=webp&s=de168350dfe4ed0cb16c7958a09617c929130677 While the chart looked like this. https://preview.redd.it/ek2eimvovl281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7973bf997b16fb7a9bc91016078a1439bb9b20fc If we were, what should follow should be a strong sell off. A whipsaw move and then the crash. I think we're in the whipsaw https://preview.redd.it/hpcack9tvl281.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=2876aa44e34644fe769f097db91acef98b5770b9 Understanding Market Bubbles: Public Perception in Stages of an Economic Bubble - HoleyProfit.com https://preview.redd.it/v7lskk0yvl281.png?width=1091&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8ee369ba58b92ac270e9a48f3dc5b4ad81dcbd2 Notice the little bull candle. A crash will not happen in a day. vi...
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SPX short

Should have stuck with the original buy target. We're at it now. My bad. Anyway, this is the next short level Short 4669 Stop 4743.3 Target 4496.0 via reddit https://ift.tt/31f9O2B
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Textbook bear market rally

Mostly chart porn. I am not trading this. https://preview.redd.it/4jup4jzo4l281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa512bca9115f51ece27a0a60084b69d267b1d9e https://preview.redd.it/q9dgge6r4l281.png?width=1739&format=png&auto=webp&s=401e833e2881e6e5e4b1e061ab71ca11a33b6b33 Understanding the bear market rally Part 2 : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) ​ And that's all it takes to bring in the optimism. Congratulations on surviving the Omicron bear market : CryptoCurrency (reddit.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3FZ7Hiw
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Buying Lira

I think this has settled down and is getting ready to boom. The case for buy and hold on the Lira : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) ​ Long TRYJPY 8.82 Stop 7.30 Target 18 ​ Short GBPTRY 17.05 Stop 18.90 Target 10 ​ Short EURTRY 14.46 Stop 15.99 Target 8.50 via reddit https://ift.tt/3d2fUpC
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Waiting for the last dance: Jeremy Grantham

See full: https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/ The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000. These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost – and where investors truly prove their mettle. For positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part. Every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work toward sucking investors in. But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios. Make no mistake – for the majority of investors today...
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New analysis layout

Working on some stuff that will make trade plans more forward looking and easier to understand. Will have these properly ready to go through the week. Here's NASDAQ trade plan to give an idea of what to expect from trade plans going forward. https://preview.redd.it/08fz553zmf281.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=badc6c0baa6dfc96de2bd4c1d3d56c923c34fbfc https://preview.redd.it/od7yq2o1nf281.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=9690d794c48c2cbf38d1a7bfa51bf7a163a988da https://preview.redd.it/3k5d8xa4nf281.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=a78f180fdd10d40df3527b395a6be3d24a3b46ce https://preview.redd.it/2sqamam6nf281.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f023ca08f7c81f7eece0741b1c674de34192ce0 https://preview.redd.it/p14xiq1lpf281.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=66c5ec075dbcdbceeb82f2206a31bf836f1be560 https://preview.redd.it/1dp9l4fbnf281.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=db76e14adc823c4...
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NZDJPY short

Short 77.50 Stop 78.015 Target 77.20 ​ https://preview.redd.it/ldz1cco6tf281.png?width=1917&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5075688a5f5204fd7bd38cfad098f3aa502b45a Simple continuation off 76 stuff. via reddit https://ift.tt/3o0X4FJ
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Closing SPX longs

Closing longs from last week at 4630 We've now broken the 161 and rallied back to the 127. These can be precursors to the 161 breakout trade. https://preview.redd.it/1hg38o9pcf281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=e43990e4bb315e637de79e3a1f71fc517c0f9389 We have confluence with this matching up with the 76 fib of the recent swing down. These can be common places for bear market rallies to end. https://preview.redd.it/vzdl2vlycf281.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3d9eb4e0196b90d4f81955d474c4b27c41b559d Looking on the smaller charts there's the possible formation of the full bear market rally pattern. https://preview.redd.it/im6745t4df281.png?width=1914&format=png&auto=webp&s=034bd33ac1aa7ed7bff3cc09dd2ba63372e2a505 Understanding the bear market rally Part 2 : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) https://preview.redd.it/7ref1m47df281.png?width=1739&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5e57e66309c1552e1d1ce5bae28e89462de3b8c I think we...
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Short SPX

Short 4636 Stop 4656 Target 4566 Butterfly for entry/stop rules. https://preview.redd.it/qgsuhvdghf281.png?width=1908&format=png&auto=webp&s=9180946662c58cc85e6fee55450fe94b972347c9 Broader analysis here Closing SPX longs : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3cVlTfF
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 28, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 27, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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AUDUSD looks set for a daily chart bear break

Stocks grabbed the headlines on Friday but we seen a lot of moves over various different markets. One of the most interesting is the possible AUDUSD break. https://preview.redd.it/vm38ciata7281.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8243c4ec38ef79fa4328ef293b1304e64bc675d I first flagged up this swing short in the Aussie about 8 months ago when we were trading 0.76250. We're down about 500 pips from there (Which is a big move in the FX markets). ​ Before: https://preview.redd.it/tr3i8pueb7281.png?width=1907&format=png&auto=webp&s=44251d23a4da7075ad80f9323544a5eb46080a56 After: https://preview.redd.it/hsqg5aglb7281.png?width=1913&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d62e627dfae202932078d14bb4524657a33449 If we go through this level we have a 161 break in the downtrend and this can take us into a vicious fall into the 220 level. https://preview.redd.it/kfltz35vb7281.png?width=1909&format=png&auto=webp&s=1984201db57945f7cddf4e5829f2c61e3...
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BTC sell limits

Sell limit: 55570.56 Stop 57350.56 Target 53094.27 ​ Next swing down would complete a butterfly pattern ending in the zone given as the target while we traded around 60K https://preview.redd.it/7fg6q5tf67281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a745f0c2e219dd90cef63720324e4e517610408 Entry into completion of a bearish harmonic. https://preview.redd.it/h4t90u0l67281.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e34382014b39fb49eb1fcbcd4348d7b194d4625 I think we're now getting into the end of the swing down. We're in the false breakout section and heading into final move low. Understanding the bear market rally Part 2 : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) https://preview.redd.it/8rp4xjey67281.png?width=1739&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2ef3436e74ad272dd44eac510001fd7303f9f99 Quite likely going to come in as a bull somewhere close to 49K. via reddit https://ift.tt/3nWuHIv
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It looks like Japan might break this time

Japan first hit the 161 of the 2020 drop in January. It's traded range-bound in this area since then. These 161 levels have historically picked out the approximate high points in most market tops. https://preview.redd.it/rei9cc5297281.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=b43d908751de6a185db8ab73c5c94e4694614f42 Our recent sell off has come right off the 161. In tops we often see small runs of the resistance levels and then perfect retests of these. Learn more about this here. https://preview.redd.it/lkdhdp8h97281.png?width=1911&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f0a4beed68984a20ea450475113f0ab51e42306 Dropping in, we can also see this move has come off the 76 retracement. https://preview.redd.it/09ze04as97281.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=362a46adb82c1654859ba9756b0c3f6abd7b53f2 So while this has come with random news, this drop has come off a very foreseeable price level. During the fall of Friday we broke through the 161 which would typi...
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Tech head and shoulders

​ https://preview.redd.it/3uxy3akhg6281.png?width=1910&format=png&auto=webp&s=49ec4b83c15393cd8d6d198e7b692be1aea5ebaa Picked up on this move in the first hour. I think that might have been our tech high : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/32FpqNx
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Optimised stock strategies: End of week 1

See first post here. Optimised Strategies: Stocks : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) ​ Optimised for return: Stocks: Optimised for return Forex Trading System by Forex Trader HoleyProfit (myfxbook.com) https://preview.redd.it/cir44ghoh6281.png?width=1547&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fd5b985f290fc89a2ec1728267790dcf91de830 Trades: Gain mainly in TSLA short. https://preview.redd.it/ub5a25bwh6281.png?width=1489&format=png&auto=webp&s=3aa6a46b4030d3d2c557798d7a6d01f4fa898498 Optimised for low DD: Stocks: Optimised for low drawdown Forex Trading System by Forex Trader HoleyProfit (myfxbook.com) https://preview.redd.it/0iggcnp0i6281.png?width=1481&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aa5d2fd58e312b6a25c606b1fd58991568d1953 Trades: Gain mostly in TSLA short. https://preview.redd.it/ml7fm9e5i6281.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b83b0c3819636e4d1c2102366d92b8205396cb4 Optimised for win rate: Stocks: Optimised for high win rate Forex Trading System by Fore...
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Weekend Sentiment on major US indices in the week ahead [November 27, 2021]

A weekly recurring poll of broad market sentiment and expectations in the week ahead. ​ Please also feel welcome to provide comments supporting your vote. It will be really interesting to see how the price moves and world events along a timeline influence the general sentiment and how this changes as we make new highs/lows and perhaps as more people come. ​ Voting runs for one day. Starting from now. View Poll via reddit https://ift.tt/3xChhVy
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Weekend Sentiment on major crypto token in the week ahead [November 27, 2021]

A weekly recurring poll of broad market sentiment and expectations in the week ahead. ​ Please also feel welcome to provide comments supporting your vote. It will be really interesting to see how the price moves and world events along a timeline influence the general sentiment and how this changes as we make new highs/lows and perhaps as more people come. ​ Voting runs for one day. Starting from now. View Poll via reddit https://ift.tt/2ZztwFO
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 26, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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I think we're into the "Subtle pop" stage in SPX

​ https://preview.redd.it/898eur2smz181.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=20760bf11f1ad626505bb53f9d43d9f776de6b0e ​ https://preview.redd.it/39q64rw0nz181.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ba53d75a7f0e9f2e653adf525418d033194e4aa Understanding Market Bubbles: Public Perception in Stages of an Economic Bubble - HoleyProfit.com via reddit https://ift.tt/3xvc2Hc
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SPX rejection off the local 161

That's the biggest candle we've seen for a while. No wicks. Full bar candle. Sold from open to close. https://preview.redd.it/3mst0mcmgz181.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=d884c6e9f90d1ef57eb0db773e53c1b46e318b3a Learn more about 161 tops Understanding Market Bubbles: The 161 Top Tendency - HoleyProfit.com via reddit https://ift.tt/311Yhnd
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Dow tumbles 900 points for worst day of year on fears of new Covid variant, S&P 500 drops 2%

U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Friday as a new Covid variant found in South Africa triggered a global shift away from risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 905.04 points, or 2.53%, for its worst day of the year, closing at 34,899.34. The S&P 500 lost 2.27% to close at 4,594.62, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.23% to finish at 15,491.66. The Dow was down more than 1,000 points at session lows. Dow tumbles 900 points for worst day of year on fears of new Covid variant, S&P 500 drops 2% (cnbc.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3nXcUkM
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TLDR of updates

Will be exiting most of my shorts into the next bear breakouts. I think the moves down are important ones and may set up larger falls but we're very extended in these current falls and I think we're due to see some sort of bullish moves if we see most fast bear breakouts. We're heading into big support levels soon over various assets. A clean break of these big levels would be uncommon. Typically if we're heading lower we'll see some sort of bear market rally and then the trade will come. ​ Current plans: Exit shorts into the next break lows and stop losses are all trailed to exit if there are rallies Wait and see how prices react to the major supports If big break of these plan for retest/continuation trades If supports look good pick up long trades in double bottom types of moves via reddit https://ift.tt/3HWfC1L
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BTC shorts update

Near exit points on BTC shorts. Stops now trailed to be just a little above current market price. Will be offloading positions in between 51 - 53K in we keep dropping. Possibly going to go long if there's a sharp break of about 50K and this looks suspect for a false breakout. I think we might be into the final throws of this drop. https://reddit.com/link/r2r2ck/video/tex0dv5xuy181/player Updates around 49-50K or if we rally. via reddit https://ift.tt/2ZrjaHX
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SPX shorts update

Trailing all stops close to the current price. We've now hit the support levels for this swing. Waiting to see what happens around these levels to plan next trades. https://reddit.com/link/r2r6h4/video/et99cfdsvy181/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3I0lnvw
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TSLA short update

Stop trailed and target will hit into the next break low if it comes. Still hold swing shorts on this. I still think this is going much lower and am just locking in some profits on shorter term trades with plans to enter them again once I see price reactions to levels. https://reddit.com/link/r2rev2/video/kjrnfwefxy181/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3DS7Pj0
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AAPL short update

Hit some targets on this and moved stops to small losses. Covered some different options of stop trailing in the video. https://reddit.com/link/r2rl1m/video/vbur9h2dzy181/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3leg9lM
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When was the last time DFV used the term "Short squeeze"?

There used to be two types of traders who knew about short squeezes. Hardcore momentum followers who'd position for possible squeeze moves, and people who short and understand there's the risk of a blow off move against you ("The market is squeezing us"). It was never in the public lexicon. This changed to small extend with the TSLA move of 2019. There was some media attention to the shorts being squeezed in TSLA. Of course it hit mainstream after DFV was correct on the GME move. I'm curious, does anyone know the last time DFV actually used this term? Would I be right in saying he's not used it since GME was under $50? That's the last reference I can find. Looking through Reddit history, I can not find any mention of it within the last 2 years - here was the last one . via reddit https://ift.tt/3p7pOfo
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 25, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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IQ test stuff

A friend and I did some IQ tests (So I could find out how much dumber I am than they are, they're not quite MENSA level - but they're a smarty). ​ They won (Easily), but it was interesting to see where I scored highest. If these are to be trusted (IDK if they are, I'm probably just spending money on nonsense) - I have "Remarkable" performance in visual perception and score "higher than 99%" of people in analytical thinking. ​ https://preview.redd.it/bwm5m6czgt181.png?width=1350&format=png&auto=webp&s=080061ceb994e6003a80d92d9a4b1c6dc6178069 ​ https://preview.redd.it/iy6c90l1ht181.png?width=1311&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bb247962180d0169fb962d12ed2865572cee0f9 via reddit https://ift.tt/2Zojya9
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Getting rich off Bitcoin

People talk a lot about how you can get rich off Bitcoin. Realistically, it's been many years since buying BTCUSD offered a chance to make very serious money. ​ The one I see most often is, "If you'd bought the high in 2017 and rode out the down move you'd be rich right now". No, you'd not. Unless you were 1/3 of the way to rich before and will to risk 90% of that. Go from being 1/3 rich to borderline poor and then finally getting all the way to rich. Even buying into the lows of the previous mega crash would have made 1,000% return (Which is a lot, but not enough to make most people significantly wealthy). People speak about BTC as if the opportunity to make 100 times your money is there in the same way it was when it went from $1 to $100. But for this to happen today, the price of a single Bitcoin would have to be $57 million in the future. I think the idea of "Becoming wealthy" through small BTC investments and super high gains mow exists most...
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SPX swing analysis review/recap

We currently trade in around the long-term swing inflection area of 47XX. This has been the estimated upper end of areas to short from since the outset (First mentioned over 6 months ago) and we've alluded to this area various times since then. https://reddit.com/link/r24bo3/video/b27lh7mvls181/player via reddit https://ift.tt/3DXIYub
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BTC short

Entry 58,900 Stop 612809.00 Target 51599.00 ​ ​ https://preview.redd.it/jafzise00s181.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c26039caf4073375ab1bd424b8fff5c65fb92a1 via reddit https://ift.tt/3p17zrN
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TSLA 76 retracement rejection

​ https://preview.redd.it/ipwrt4n95n181.png?width=1914&format=png&auto=webp&s=13793366f5592cf669f7ee28aa81408b9fa943bb Might be the end of the first correction. https://preview.redd.it/js14044i5n181.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bd64aeab1bd694db4fe40b4e01f65c3d8b0ecd3 via reddit https://ift.tt/3HS2k6b
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 24, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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Cathy Wood's plans to short major stocks.

I did not think me and Cathy had so much in common. “We think the benchmarks are where the big risks are long term, because they are filling up with value traps — those companies that have done very well historically but are going to be disintermediated and disrupted by the massive amount of innovation that’s taking place,” Wood said. “What we would be doing is shorting stocks that are in the big benchmarks and when we get into a risk-off situation, what happens is portfolio managers and analysts generally run back to those stocks, get closer to their benchmarks and they dump our stocks, which are either small parts of benchmarks or not in benchmarks,” she said. “Great opportunity for us, as we have experienced during these last few days, to pick up those stocks because it’s simply a risk-off move to get closer to benchmarks.” Cathie Wood says her firm is testing more aggressive strategy: 'Ark on steroids' (cnbc.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3xjaCiN
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 23, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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Big BTC butterfly update

We've gotten to the 127. If there's a clear break of the 127, we're probably in a bear market. https://preview.redd.it/k5vf46qhjc181.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c05b4aacacaca441459418248cd9ef6596953e0 ​ https://preview.redd.it/9quo6mzojc181.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=356669c3f9bc807acce8a85e9442e0426565cc29 Characteristics we see in butterfly tops; D leg is parabolic D leg is a tiny spike out of previous high Rejection of D leg is clean and strong via reddit https://ift.tt/30PNLzk
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Stocks under $400

I'm putting together some strategy plans for ongoing stuff. I'm trying to work out ways to make position sizing commensurate to desired risk on smaller accounts who do not have the flexibility in position sizing we have with CFDs (US regs people, mainly. The rest of you have a host of good options). ​ Choices are limited to assets I have CFDs readily available for. See below. https://preview.redd.it/o3qudu5ymc181.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d421733dd7ca8979448f6c59ebfaa7f530927db ​ https://preview.redd.it/sthqd5k1nc181.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=6acaaa5c32a8c4c6e4bb71d47da72b4c9ec78c02 Any preferences? via reddit https://ift.tt/3l1S3Lf
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SPX's 76% retracement

Basic bearish Elliot wave structure for SP:SPX by holeyprofit — TradingView https://preview.redd.it/vp2cbol0n7181.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=600ecca05a25d0769f09a387e9621844f8918f93 via reddit https://ift.tt/32r23Hl
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Shorting BTC

Missed update on the retest. Some limit orders filled. Adding some more 58,200 Stop 60065.91 Target 51,600 https://preview.redd.it/twco7kn0s5181.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dd93c9f92afc54f8d811ed2f66e101f6989ffb7 via reddit https://ift.tt/3DI8inY
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Long Lira

IC markets still do not have full liquidity on the Lira. Lira has "Close only" trading status. : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) Which is preventing me doing what I wanna do but to the extent I can be, I am now long JPYTRY and short EURYTRY, GBPTRY and USDTRY. The case for buy and hold on the Lira : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) ​ Stops are a couple percent above/below the last major highs. More updates when IC go back to full liquidity on this. They give no ETA, but mine is about 3 days. Prices should settle enough within a few trading days. via reddit https://ift.tt/30QmIDG
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BTC makes 161 low

Little range. Sharp false break to the downside. Strong rally from 161. Consistent with a move into wave 5 of an elliot move Basic bearish Elliot wave structure for SP:SPX by holeyprofit — TradingView ​ If you're new here, this is a useful post for understanding this concept. Understanding the bear market rally Part 2 : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) https://preview.redd.it/gh8xuw2ew1181.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=f436f24d5582493e0e04e688ec876eef89e23b5d via reddit https://ift.tt/3qW37x9
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31% win rate

​ https://preview.redd.it/sy5le87tj1181.png?width=1584&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4edf84208f48a9be8c93d907c5cb3526d42b9f0 https://preview.redd.it/pfkijxivj1181.png?width=1550&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ea550008d6b2d3dc908be7463b24ec4c2219660 https://www.myfxbook.com/members/HoleyProfit/crypto-swings-shorts-only/9202225 ​ 2 swings required to recover/ATH after a persistent rally. None of them had to be a crash. https://preview.redd.it/94xbo0h1k1181.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3f6472326eedc67d40e1ae865492e2d5e4aa617 See more info in links here Assorted crypto trades (Short only) : BeatTheBear (reddit.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/3HL0qnV
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Daily Discussion Thread [November 21, 2021]

Find all analysis from the HoleyProfit team here https://holeyprofit.com/forum --- MUST READ IF CONSIDERING ANALYSIS/SIGNALS POSTED Understanding Trading Signals (essential) Understanding Trading Signals: Risk:Reward and Win Rates – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: Sizing Positions – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Trading Signals: The Round Trip – HoleyProfit.com ​ Market Tendencies (Essential) Market Tendencies: Looking for Edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Creating betting edges – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: Inflection Points – HoleyProfit.com Understanding Market Tendencies: True Inflect – HoleyProfit.com ​ Find other useful training materials here Training and Education Posts Listed by Category : HPedu (reddit.com) ​ Discuss your own trading ideas/ positions here. Ask questions and chat with fellow members. Be nice to each other. The people posting analysis from the u/HoleyProfit profile are rarely the pe...
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Taking profit on bulk of short only position

Out most of my big trades in this now. Still have other small ones running for swing but will go for bigger trades again if we get a retracement. We might be close to a near term low. ​ Back to a high. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/HoleyProfit/crypto-swings-shorts-only/9202225 29% win rate. https://preview.redd.it/ilk3enhp4v081.png?width=1534&format=png&auto=webp&s=97166a92779d936309b861a69c5d5dde5da98a8b via reddit https://ift.tt/30KVLRP
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