HoleyProfit.com

We’ve not seen anything notable bearish of late but we are now getting back into the sort of zone where we’d be likely to see bears if it is indeed the case we’re in a shallow bull trap on a weekly/monthly chart. Bears have not yet broken (And they might not) - but this is a time to be aware of the risks and where there’s again reasonable odds betting on a big bear move. Real further analysis and actionable break levels here. Bear break contingency plans - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) ​ TLDR: Short 4160. Stop 4179. Trail stops on longs to protect profits. via reddit https://ift.tt/zL2huGX

We’ve not seen anything notable bearish of late but we are now getting back into the sort of zone where we’d be likely to see bears if it is indeed the case we’re in a shallow bull trap on a weekly/monthly chart. Bears have not yet broken (And they might not) - but this is a time to be aware of the risks and where there’s again reasonable odds betting on a big bear move. Real further analysis and actionable break levels here. Bear break contingency plans - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) ​ TLDR: Short 4160. Stop 4179. Trail stops on longs to protect profits. via reddit https://ift.tt/iZHqj3u

We’ve not seen anything notable bearish of late but we are now getting back into the sort of zone where we’d be likely to see bears if it is indeed the case we’re in a shallow bull trap on a weekly/monthly chart. Bears have not yet broken (And they might not) - but this is a time to be aware of the risks and where there’s again reasonable odds betting on a big bear move. Real further analysis and actionable break levels here. Bear break contingency plans - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) ​ TLDR: Short 4160. Stop 4179. Trail stops on longs to protect profits. via reddit https://ift.tt/QxqJCzH

We’ve not seen anything notable bearish of late but we are now getting back into the sort of zone where we’d be likely to see bears if it is indeed the case we’re in a shallow bull trap on a weekly/monthly chart. Bears have not yet broken (And they might not) - but this is a time to be aware of the risks and where there’s again reasonable odds betting on a big bear move. Real further analysis and actionable break levels here. Bear break contingency plans - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) ​ TLDR: Short 4160. Stop 4179. Trail stops on longs to protect profits. via reddit https://ift.tt/PQWg5GM

We’ve not seen anything notable bearish of late but we are now getting back into the sort of zone where we’d be likely to see bears if it is indeed the case we’re in a shallow bull trap on a weekly/monthly chart. Bears have not yet broken (And they might not) - but this is a time to be aware of the risks and where there’s again reasonable odds betting on a big bear move. Real further analysis and actionable break levels here. Bear break contingency plans - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) ​ TLDR: Short 4160. Stop 4179. Trail stops on longs to protect profits. via reddit https://ift.tt/BzVDMg3

As more time passes we’re seeing more failures of classic crash patterns and more things consistent with a bottoming move. We’re now at what would be classically be a critical decision level. If bulls are strong into the end of this week and next week and close over 4100,many bear patterns have failed. ​ Read full write up here. A real failure of the bear market if this level breaks. (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/bZnCvFX

As more time passes we’re seeing more failures of classic crash patterns and more things consistent with a bottoming move. We’re now at what would be classically be a critical decision level. If bulls are strong into the end of this week and next week and close over 4100,many bear patterns have failed. ​ Read full write up here. A real failure of the bear market if this level breaks. (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/l2bPZvC

Today we had a failure of the easy bull patterns and triggered the short re-entry. ​ This could just be a bear trap, as shown in the blue circle - but that would imply a hard down first. https://preview.redd.it/7h5chf566nia1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=5c4b763fcd491945b5e3853c7a27d91cb6e92041 Read work for this analysis here. ​ Thanks for reading Beat the bear.! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. ​ ​ Subscribed ​ ​ Read work for this analysis here. ​ What the market does around 3800 - 3900 is probably critical to the long-term trend. Major decisions will be made there. Reasonably good chance we get to there without getting over 4150 again at this point. Bears can re-position here and decide what to do if we get to 3950. ​ Will update upon the hitting of a critical level. via reddit https://ift.tt/AXvpzoT

Today we had a failure of the easy bull patterns and triggered the short re-entry. ​ This could just be a bear trap, as shown in the blue circle - but that would imply a hard down first. https://preview.redd.it/7h5chf566nia1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=5c4b763fcd491945b5e3853c7a27d91cb6e92041 Read work for this analysis here. ​ Thanks for reading Beat the bear.! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. ​ ​ Subscribed ​ ​ Read work for this analysis here. ​ What the market does around 3800 - 3900 is probably critical to the long-term trend. Major decisions will be made there. Reasonably good chance we get to there without getting over 4150 again at this point. Bears can re-position here and decide what to do if we get to 3950. ​ Will update upon the hitting of a critical level. via reddit https://ift.tt/7kGn02O

There are multiple stocks that look prime for big short squeezes (And if one were to take a more optimistic view, they could say lows may be in - but I think we probably are still likely to see bear conditions in 2024 if we rally). ​ Various stocks that were the most beaten down may not be at this stage. ​ https://preview.redd.it/tcpc3lgc71ia1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=947d07fbc47376267dda97578ea1be2955a2dae4 From this stage, BB was going 90% lose - but it would double first. ​ We have examples of this in; ​ ARKK ARKK could be set for sharp bounce. for AMEX:ARKK by holeyprofit — TradingView https://preview.redd.it/k5yi3u5s71ia1.png?width=1716&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=58a1429d284c26c54d0087835fcb6d8b87d2b3e5 ​ SNAP SNAP could make a sharp bounce. for NYSE:SNAP by holeyprofit — TradingView https://preview.redd.it/8241ck9n71ia1.png?width=1673&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ada8c7e1acbe3f2655ff1f7...

As things stand, I think this is a probable move and it's certainly ones bears need to be aware of at this point to avoid risk of being squeezed out (Even if the overall thesis is correct). ​ https://preview.redd.it/n9gnmaaqdnha1.png?width=1719&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7ead5727e78bcc2b52a10570d28a07612a1ce646 The rational and failure signals of this trade plan can be read in full here. Primary trade plan for coming months. for SP:SPX by holeyprofit — TradingView ​ There’s a popular view between bears that we’re in a bull trap, and I agree. However, there are different types of bulls traps. This free newsletter explains limitations of betting on bull traps in historical crashes. Let's talk about the classic bubble model - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/Xzqh2FS

It's looking more likely " AND.WAIT.IN.CASH " marked the bottom. https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/yn9ipz/hooleyprofit_is_now_calling_for_a_crash_and ​ We may be in a move similar to the 2007 bear trap. https://preview.redd.it/za4h67dsylga1.png?width=1791&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c4ff48fab92c8c9dd88711878ad1f46498410c15 ​ https://preview.redd.it/rcouq8ytylga1.png?width=1481&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=15ac9f48a2a9b4b896ff5cd8fc942d81e4a32834 Or the BTC trap we had before the bear. https://preview.redd.it/acrsu03yylga1.png?width=1872&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fec9aeb7ab482c3e0b088cb460a539156a78c54f If we are, the crash models are going to fail because the high is not yet made. It's time to hedge up/exit - define new bear break levels (Under 4000 is where I'd get back in) and be ready for the next short op when mania is back to the fore. ​ Lessons were learned from Bitcoin. L...

The basic 76 retracements have now failed. This may be the early breaking of the downtrend and we may be in a buy the dip market. ​ https://preview.redd.it/3sn2ebw9m0ga1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7940951a764c80bb09615b3560f0b1d89ebf014c If we can break over 4200 or hold supports around 4070 these both strongly imply we head to at least 4300. 4400 - 4500 much more probable and a new high (Maybe a nominally higher high relative to 2021 high) is also possible. Bears need to get under 4000. I am currently short but my target is 4080. 4070 I will probably be long target 4300 - 5000. These seem like viable targets now with us breaking the 76. ​ Read full plans here. Basic bear levels failed. - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/qdaRI2Z

Ran the last resistance levels. Now up to our optimal level for a short and also a level where I think if it fails bear plans are best shelved and not considered again until at least 4240 (And probably something more like 4400). If we do see a rejection at this level, strong downtrend probable. https://preview.redd.it/xmhpko9en0ea1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=21b10b955f9033a1f482f1316422e7444204a02a If the average time for a bear market rally transitioning into a bear leg ratio holds true to what it's been through 2022, we'd typically be looking at a seriously strong sell-off month approaching. ​ Typically we've seen bear market rallies fail in 1/3 (Or less) of the time they took to form. We'd be 3 months into a huge BMR is that was the case. One massive month may take us back to the lows (And under the lows there's a real chance we see real panic hit the market). ​ Read more That should be final spike if this is a bear (s...

After a prolonged range we've had a spike out through today. Strong selling likely to come soon. - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) https://preview.redd.it/7c62p4i77iaa1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=61259433d9eab96d029ab79fd15495cba7e4738b This may be the setting up of the wave 3 trend leg. Wave 2 correction having been made. ​ https://preview.redd.it/fhewmkle7iaa1.png?width=1668&format=png&auto=webp&s=51c1a51d287d7e3ff8c569c883821eb36c87337a Stops above previous entry. Should not make a new high if this pattern is valid. https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/zkxwla/hoooleyprofit_has_recently_returned_to_telling_us/ via reddit https://ift.tt/JOiP9c6

Hopefully everyone spotted the HoooleyProfit signal. Making an OP about how dumb they think HP is 2 weeks ago. https://preview.redd.it/2wqd7wz2mb6a1.png?width=1915&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ea30281395f8be8315415846f1919520055bb67 HooleyProfit has went from telling people to get all cash at 3700 to saying HP could have "Quit while they were ahead" when it was 20% down. Was no need to keep saying bigger percentages. With respect, Hooley may have quit while they were ahead in 2021. This is not about "I told you so". It never was. It's always been about tracking the signals and explaining how they form or fail. Ways to make trade plans around that. As per the signals discussed, we've triggered bear signals rather than some arbitrary "Called it" percentage. ​ Let's look at the signals: ​ The 161 retested. An area that's always been given as the critical decision level for the macro trend. https://preview.redd.it/78r1kcoumb6a1....

This is where the big decision for the foreseeable future is likely to be made. ​ Red path for bear. Blue for bull. Entering bear trades now with stops over 4145. https://preview.redd.it/01b4foapeo5a1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=30a9ad791d5d91eaaaa9e1cd566d8a126bfe93ac See more: Optimal sell level / Major inflection point met. (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/omBX2fu

I think if we make more highs, it's nothing but bad news for the bears. Really would seem best to pack it up for a while if that happens - however, as things stand we've rejected right inside of our bear zones. Very strong downtrend and ultimately a break of 3000 (Probably a bull trap rally soon after). ​ DJI has to reverse here for a bear. https://preview.redd.it/62wa4nnrruy91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=49bc3b63d99fdcc29f55da73cb5d66a2015a796a If we do top here, I'd not expect to see any significant rallies until under 31,500. And more selling after a range/bounce. ​ https://preview.redd.it/xtwj6s70suy91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=578f7e22ce847fcf9e558df283808cdaee8be4d0 ​ Read SPX analysis and more on how the DJI trade plan is generated. via reddit https://ift.tt/WMkzTqs

I think if we make more highs, it's nothing but bad news for the bears. Really would seem best to pack it up for a while if that happens - however, as things stand we've rejected right inside of our bear zones. Very strong downtrend and ultimately a break of 3000 (Probably a bull trap rally soon after). ​ DJI has to reverse here for a bear. https://preview.redd.it/62wa4nnrruy91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=49bc3b63d99fdcc29f55da73cb5d66a2015a796a If we do top here, I'd not expect to see any significant rallies until under 31,500. And more selling after a range/bounce. ​ https://preview.redd.it/xtwj6s70suy91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=578f7e22ce847fcf9e558df283808cdaee8be4d0 ​ Read SPX analysis and more on how the DJI trade plan is generated. via reddit https://ift.tt/P8B6aJ7

The opportunity costs of being incorrect on the bear trade at this level would be very high. Especially if a big bear is coming later and there's another leg coming to kick out the chasing bears. If you've had a good, as I said to the bulls in 2021, a key part of making a profit is taking a profit. Be aware of the warning signs. The risks and opportunities are explained here. via reddit https://ift.tt/MGPzRVS