Skip to main content

Why timing is harder than price levels

I get asked a lot about timeframes. Here's a copy/paste of a recent answer.

I get timeframes wrong more often than I get them right, so I tend not to give them now while I am working on improving upon the things I notice that throw it off.

The issue I have is ranges and retracements. I find it hard to define how long these would be expected to last.

I'll give you some examples:

A move like this I could make some sort of estimate how many candles it would typically take and from the timeframe used add up the expected time of the move. https://imgur.com/a/tCHxXtm

https://preview.redd.it/h1lwcyx1ay581.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=18e6332ae5393c5c1cd72b15a551edd7048fc2cf

But if this happens the market has the same overall outcome with my timeframe being entirely wrong. https://imgur.com/a/wdb9Q8s

https://preview.redd.it/qszz1pa3ay581.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7549ebe963bfb03182ce80ba486f7497034b797d

This type of move making the estimate wrong in a way that is unlikely to be useful at all. https://imgur.com/a/Jl1T5fm

https://preview.redd.it/nfyfo7v4ay581.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b65de3e8478c980ace4a4b39e3e9e44cb4d4967

All three of these examples would all fit into the same overall price forecast. To define the levels for the trade is much easier than defining the amount of candles in the swings (Which is what is needed to give timeframes). I've found this troublesome and spend time working on improving it.

If you're asking me for the purpose of timing options trades, please see: https://holeyprofit.com/2021/10/09/understanding-market-bubbles-improving-odds-on-bearish-options-bets/

The short answer is I have studied the swings markets make from area to area for a long time. Getting close to 10 yrs work on that now. Timing is only something I've become interested in within the last 3 yrs. And really only intensively forming and testing hypothesises for a year or so (Mostly due to noting how off my timing could be even when levels were near perfect).



via reddit https://ift.tt/3q1RToP

Comments

Popular posts from this blog