HoleyProfit.com

Today we had a failure of the easy bull patterns and triggered the short re-entry. ​ This could just be a bear trap, as shown in the blue circle - but that would imply a hard down first. https://preview.redd.it/7h5chf566nia1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=5c4b763fcd491945b5e3853c7a27d91cb6e92041 Read work for this analysis here. ​ Thanks for reading Beat the bear.! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. ​ ​ Subscribed ​ ​ Read work for this analysis here. ​ What the market does around 3800 - 3900 is probably critical to the long-term trend. Major decisions will be made there. Reasonably good chance we get to there without getting over 4150 again at this point. Bears can re-position here and decide what to do if we get to 3950. ​ Will update upon the hitting of a critical level. via reddit https://ift.tt/7kGn02O

There are multiple stocks that look prime for big short squeezes (And if one were to take a more optimistic view, they could say lows may be in - but I think we probably are still likely to see bear conditions in 2024 if we rally). ​ Various stocks that were the most beaten down may not be at this stage. ​ https://preview.redd.it/tcpc3lgc71ia1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=947d07fbc47376267dda97578ea1be2955a2dae4 From this stage, BB was going 90% lose - but it would double first. ​ We have examples of this in; ​ ARKK ARKK could be set for sharp bounce. for AMEX:ARKK by holeyprofit — TradingView https://preview.redd.it/k5yi3u5s71ia1.png?width=1716&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=58a1429d284c26c54d0087835fcb6d8b87d2b3e5 ​ SNAP SNAP could make a sharp bounce. for NYSE:SNAP by holeyprofit — TradingView https://preview.redd.it/8241ck9n71ia1.png?width=1673&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ada8c7e1acbe3f2655ff1f7

As things stand, I think this is a probable move and it's certainly ones bears need to be aware of at this point to avoid risk of being squeezed out (Even if the overall thesis is correct). ​ https://preview.redd.it/n9gnmaaqdnha1.png?width=1719&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7ead5727e78bcc2b52a10570d28a07612a1ce646 The rational and failure signals of this trade plan can be read in full here. Primary trade plan for coming months. for SP:SPX by holeyprofit — TradingView ​ There’s a popular view between bears that we’re in a bull trap, and I agree. However, there are different types of bulls traps. This free newsletter explains limitations of betting on bull traps in historical crashes. Let's talk about the classic bubble model - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/Xzqh2FS

It's looking more likely " AND.WAIT.IN.CASH " marked the bottom. https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/yn9ipz/hooleyprofit_is_now_calling_for_a_crash_and ​ We may be in a move similar to the 2007 bear trap. https://preview.redd.it/za4h67dsylga1.png?width=1791&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c4ff48fab92c8c9dd88711878ad1f46498410c15 ​ https://preview.redd.it/rcouq8ytylga1.png?width=1481&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=15ac9f48a2a9b4b896ff5cd8fc942d81e4a32834 Or the BTC trap we had before the bear. https://preview.redd.it/acrsu03yylga1.png?width=1872&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fec9aeb7ab482c3e0b088cb460a539156a78c54f If we are, the crash models are going to fail because the high is not yet made. It's time to hedge up/exit - define new bear break levels (Under 4000 is where I'd get back in) and be ready for the next short op when mania is back to the fore. ​ Lessons were learned from Bitcoin. L

The basic 76 retracements have now failed. This may be the early breaking of the downtrend and we may be in a buy the dip market. ​ https://preview.redd.it/3sn2ebw9m0ga1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7940951a764c80bb09615b3560f0b1d89ebf014c If we can break over 4200 or hold supports around 4070 these both strongly imply we head to at least 4300. 4400 - 4500 much more probable and a new high (Maybe a nominally higher high relative to 2021 high) is also possible. Bears need to get under 4000. I am currently short but my target is 4080. 4070 I will probably be long target 4300 - 5000. These seem like viable targets now with us breaking the 76. ​ Read full plans here. Basic bear levels failed. - by HoleyProfit (substack.com) via reddit https://ift.tt/qdaRI2Z